Newsletter – October 2021

We are looking forward to exhibiting at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC) 2021, held between Nov 15th -18th at the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). You can find us in hall 2, stand no. 2353

Al Majal Business Park’s (AMBP) residents can now enjoy a fun atmosphere at our newly renovated recreation facility AMBP North Rumaila.

Several high-profile developments have taken place in recent weeks:

September Oil exports: Increased slightly to 3.08 Mb/d, up 27 kb/d from August levels, with revenues jumping to US$ 6.711 B, up from US$ 6.553B in August, with the average price of Iraqi crude rising to US$ 72.612/bbl.

September Oil Revenues: Iraq expects to earn oil revenues of US$ 47.5 B[1] based on an oil price of US$ 45/b and ~3.5 Mb/d of exports, which in devalued dinars should significantly improve state earnings. With oil prices averaging US$ 65/bbl this year, the actual deficit would come well under the reported figure of US$ 19.5 B. Iraq’s oil exports earnings are likely to reach over US$ 77 B in 2021, nearing 2019’s US$ 79 B, as OPEC+ eases restrictions and oil prices continue to rise.

Iraq’s September oil production surged to 4.34 Mb/d, up from August’s 4.23 Mb/d according to Iraq Oil Report. Output might further increase in the immediate term.

Iraq is in advanced talks with IOCs over boosting the country’s production capacity to 8 Mb/d by end 2027, above a previous target of 7 Mb/d by this date.

Federal Iraq and the semi-autonomous KRG have reached a notional agreement to implement a revenue-sharing deal that stalled since the ratification of the 2021 budget on March 31.

Angola’s state-owned company Sonangol reached a temporary agreement with Iraq’s ministry earlier this year that allowed Qayarah to resume production at an average 10 kb/d.

Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) requested customers to provide their 2022 term crude requirements for three crude grades, Basrah Medium, Basrah Heavy and Kirkuk, excluding the flagship Basrah Light. This implies that the latter would be used for local consumption in Iraqi refineries.

Iraq plans to invest US$ 3 B annually to replace the burning of liquids at its power plants with natural gas, with plans to end gas flaring by 2022. The country is also working on reducing its methane emissions before the coming COP26 meeting on climate change in Glasgow.

On the latest updates of the TotalEnergies and Iraq , Iraq’s minister of oil said during the Energy Intelligence Forum in October, that INOC will take at least 40% stake in the project. Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanné said during the September Investor Day that his company intends to “keep 40-50% interest” in the projects, while looking to identify further partners.

On the latest updates of Abu Dhabi’s Masdar and Iraq’s preliminary agreement for developing 2 GW of solar capacity in southern and central Iraq.

Iraq’s Independent Electoral High Commission (IHEC) announced that 9 million voted out of 22.17 million registered, with an official 41% turnout falling to 34% when considering the 26.64 million Iraqis over 18 years old eligible to vote.

The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) won more than half of the total number of seats that the Kurds obtained combined, winning 33 seats out of a total of 58 Kurdish seats.

Saudi Arabia and Egypt signed contracts for a US$ 1.8 B electricity interconnection project to begin in 2022

On October 2, Libya launched the South Refinery with a modest throughput capacity of 30 kb/d

Middle East oil drilling has still not recovered from the sharp drop induced by the pandemic and the related OPEC+ production cuts. However, it is likely to start expanding as quotas increase and production growth plans in the UAE and Iraq get underway.

Gas drilling is starting to show a moderate recovery, supported by the beginning of Qatar’s LNG expansion projects.

Note: Iraqi gas rigs are not reported by Baker Hughes, likely because Iraq reports gas rig figures clubbed with oil rigs and/or lack of response from contractors (drilling for non-associated gas is at minimal levels compared to oil, although it should pick up as Sinopec’s development of Mansuriyah and the Pearl Petroleum consortium’s expansion of Khor Mor move forward).

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